This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.

美股点评:苹果公司、波音公司

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场的股票在7日多数下滑,标普500指数下跌约35点。纳斯达克100指数微涨14点。

如果不是轮换至苹果公司上涨,情况可能更糟糕;标普500等权指数ETF(RSP)收盘下跌84点,罗素指数下跌了72点。

标普500指数的腾落指数仍处于挣扎中;上周晚些时候腾落指数很接近突破,不过未能达成。今天的下滑也没有什么值得兴奋的。我们将拭目以待腾落指数从目前位置的未来走势。

解读股市为何应当下跌的原因有很多,例如市场估值达到高点、经济增长减缓、美联储缩表等,不过到目前为止,以上的威胁一直以来被忽视。

高盛今天将对美国第三季度GDP增速的预期从6.5%下调至3.5%。我丝毫不感到意外,我们意识到美国经济放缓的情况已经有一段时间了。基于目前市场对美国GDP增长的预期共识,将会有更多的公司下调其给出的美国GDP增长预期。

我在等待的是市场对上市公司盈利的预期何时会开始下调。许多分析师上调对标普500指数的盈利预期和目标价是建立在经济复苏的情况之上的。

如果第三季度的经济增速较第二季度出现巨幅下滑,应该会导致盈利预期的下调和评级下调。

我仍在观望移动向4400点附近布林带下端的情况。

iShares 7-10年美国国债指数基金(IEF)

10年期美国国债再次试探1.38%处的阻力线;我认为10年期美国国债收益率会突破并升至1.55%附近。

债券收益率面临多重挑战,全球范围的低利率推动10年期美国国债上涨,加上美国GDP的增长减缓,我不认为美国国债收益率的上涨会持续太久。

波音公司 (BA)

波音公司发现其处于一个不可回头的位置,如果其股价跌破210美元,则希望破灭,并可能回落至172美元一线,甚至更低的155美元。

市场喜欢看到股票填补缺口,不过不幸的是,填补缺口并没有截止日期。对于波音公司的股价而言,这里有巨大的价格差别。

Snow公司 (SNOW)

Snowflake公司的股价正在上涨并且十分接近322美元处的阻力线。我在7月12日首次指出Snowflake公司股票潜在的反头肩形态。

一旦Snowflake公司触及该阻力线,我们将可以观察到这波走势是否结束。考虑到Snowflake公司近期的涨幅,我们可以认为目前312美元的股价已经很好了。

苹果公司 (AAPL)

苹果公司宣布将于9月14日举行新品发布会后,该公司的股价今天上涨。

明显的是,下周的发布会将是苹果公司公布新iPhone产品线的时候。

苹果公司股票再次超买,苹果公司新品发布会之前股价走高很常见,通常情况下,苹果公司的股票在发布会后会遭到抛售。

所以我一直等待的苹果公司股价下跌将推迟,不过我不认为结果会改变,该公司的股价可能跌向130美元。

迪堡太平洋有限公司 (DBD)

迪堡太平洋有限公司股票的突破企图看起来失败了。拥有好产品的公司有时并不能使股票获得提振。迪堡太平洋有限公司可能就是这样的例子。

– 

9月7日美股评论所提及的股票:迪堡太平洋有限公司、苹果公司、Snowflake公司、波音公司

9月7日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、iShares 7-10年美国国债指数基金

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有苹果公司的股票

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with permission from Mott Capital Management. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容(包括文章和评论)仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品,也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透证券,盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金或其他人士的过往或将来表现,或其提供的信息之准确性做出任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易适合于您。

发布内容中提及的证券或其他金融产品并非适合所有投资者。发布的内容并未从您的投资目标、财务状况或需求出发,并不旨在向您推荐任何证券、金融产品或策略。过往业绩并不代表将来表现,如有需要,请咨询相关人士获取专业的建议。

盈透或其分支机构的雇员所发布的任何信息均基于公认的真实可信的信息。然而,盈透或其分支机构无法保证信息的完整性、准确性和适当性。盈透不对任何金融产品其过去或将来的表现作出任何声明或担保。交易员睿智中发布的文章并不代表盈透认为任何特定金融产品或交易策略适合您。

trading top