美股点评:奈飞、亚马逊与家得宝

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美国市场

  • 标普500指数期货 上涨8.25点
  • 美国10年期国债     1.82%
  • 美元指数 97.84
  • 波动率指数VIX 12.29
  • 原油期货 56.46美元

国际市场

  • 日经指数  下跌0.53%
  • 上证综指  上涨0.85%
  • 香港恒生指数  上涨1.55%
  • 韩国KOSPI指数  下跌0.34%
  • 德国DAX指数  上涨1.01%
  • 英国富时指数FTSE  上涨1.24%

宏观

德国

全球市场再次涨声一片,德国DAX指数升至2018年初以来的最高水平。

但是,市场的反弹看起来缺乏助推剂,这意味着我们看到的不断出现的市场买盘仅仅是出于对风险资产的饕餮胃口。

标普500指数期货

我并非想为做多者的牛市狂欢浇冷水,但是请注意,标普500指数期货的相对强弱指数(RSI)正处于2019年的最高水平并且在回升至2018年1月的高点。

该指标让我有些担心,对我来说这意味着市场可能在出现超买。

标普500指数现货市场

对于标普500指数的现货市场来说也是同样的高水平。

正如我在昨晚指出的,波动率指数正接近一个区间意味着剧烈波动可能将发生,与此同时标普500指数的相对强弱指数显示市场超买。

我开始感到担忧,我们需要反弹的节奏减缓从而使反弹能够更持久。

下图显示的是,自2012年以来,标普500指数的相对强弱指数仅有屈指可数的几次达到目前的高水平。

所以,在目前的点位请保持谨慎。目前也许不是将您的全部资金押上桌的好时机。可能是策略上减少激进的时候了。

并不是说目前的位置会是一个长期的头部,因为我并不觉得会如此。但是,短期的回调毫无疑问是可能发生的。

股票

家得宝(HD)

家得宝一直是非必须消费品板块强势表现的代表。不过,在家得宝发布不及预期的指引后,情况发生变化,家得宝的股价在盘前交易中下跌。

家得宝的股票跌至其上升趋势线的下方,这意味着其股价可能会回落至219美元的支撑线附近。

亚马逊(AMZN)

随着家得宝的股价下跌,亚马逊的股价面临更大的压力。不过目前亚马逊的局面看起来并不乐观。

亚马逊的股价继续走低,相对强弱指数也继续走低。这不是一个好的组合。亚马逊股价的跌势还远未结束。

AMD(AMD)

富国银行今天上调了AMD的目标价,从原来的每股40美元调升至每股48美元。

AMD的股价在升向43美元的路线上。AMD股价上升的陡峭程度让我有些担忧。

美光科技(MU)

我们今天可以再次看到美光科技挑战其位于48.25美元的阻力线。我们将观察美光科技这次是否可以突破该阻力线。

奈飞(NFLX)

奈飞的股价突破至300美元的上方,该水平线一直是关键的阻力线。

不同于标普500指数的是,奈飞的股票并未出现超买,这意味着奈飞的股价可以继续涨向320美元。

11月19日美股评论所提及的股票:家得宝、亚马逊、、美光科技、奈飞公司、AMD

11月19日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、德国

Michael Kramer和Mott Capital的客户持有奈飞公司的股票

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