公司们暂停股息分红可能带来的影响

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发生了什么事?

固定收益产品的投资者们请咨询观察下您入账的股息分红,因为它们可能是一段时间里您最后的分红了:投行高盛估算大型公司应对冠状病毒的支出使得现金支付面临风险。

这意味着什么?

在对欧洲主要公司的股息分红进行分析后,高盛得出的结论是因为今年的股息分红主要是用去年的利润进行支付的,故而通常不会有风险。

不过,鉴于接受政府财政援助的公司将面临严厉的监管压力,多达五分之一的欧盟区域最大公司们已经暂停支付股息分红。

由于对这些公司今年快速下滑的盈利预期,投资者对他们明年的股息分红也存在疑虑(即便据高盛的预估,这已经体现在股票的定价中)。

股息分红的情况可能在2022年才会变得再次吸引人起来,因为用于支付的盈利来源于2021年。

高盛认为2022年股息分红的增长可能较投资者目前的预期更高。

为何值得关注?

对于市场而言:追逐每一分盈利

取消股息分红的欧洲公司主要是银行、旅游和度假公司以及工业企业们。在大西洋彼岸的情况也没有多数不同,美国的投资银行摩根大通在周一表示,如果即将到来的经济衰退像分析师们所预期的那般严重,摩根大通考虑暂停发放股息分红,这是摩根大通有史以来首次停发股息分红。

这也可以帮助理解为何高盛推荐的部分板块集中于在经济低迷时期更具防御性质的行业,如科技板块、电信板块和必需消费品板块。

更大的远景:股息分红让世界保持运转

股息分红对所有类型的投资者而言均十分重要:部分投资者依赖于定期的分红以支付生活开支,如保险公司等其他投资者则利用分红支付理赔费用。

保险公司将它们从保险中中获得的资金进行再投资,故而他们可能面临着两面夹攻的可能:丧失了来源于股息分红的收入同时受到冠状病毒影响的顾客又可能进行大量索赔。

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