美联储紧缩靴子落地 收益率曲线再现倒挂

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场连续第二日上涨,因为交易者们试图在交易时段的最后一小时了结看跌期权,这也令波动率下滑。

期权的delta对冲值仍为正,意味着交易员们正在了解标普500指数的看跌期权。

标普500指数基金与纳斯达克100指数基金的delta对冲值为负,意味着交易员们正买入这些指数基金的看跌期权并卖出看涨期权。

不过实际上,美联储给出的2023年与2024年货币政策的路径是高于中性利率的。这一政策甚至比我(对美联储政策)最鹰派的预期还要强硬。

美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会听起来美联储的目标是收紧金融状况,而紧缩的金融状况将指向更低的市盈率与股价。

当金融环境收紧时,股市会下跌。美股市场目前的金融状况已经比2018年更为紧张;随着金融紧缩,公司们的股价会下跌。

如果您认为美联储什么都没说,那您就完全理解错了。美联储暗示他们希望将2023年和2024年的美国基准利率提高至2.8%,这一水平高于中性利率。

美联储在告诉人们他们希望收紧金融状况。请记住这一句话,不要与美联储对抗:反之同样成立。

另外,本轮加息周期与以往的加息周期不同之处在于,目前的经济增长缺乏动力:美国经济尚未处于扩张的早期或开始阶段;美国经济的扩张正在大幅放缓。亚特兰大联储暗示美国第一季度的经济增长率为1.2%。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数基金仍位于下降趋势中,标普500指数基金在过去两天反弹的走势看起来与1月28日至29日的反弹,以及2月24日至25日的反弹走势类似。

我并不认为目前有太多其他原因可以解释,由于今天是到期日,部分看跌期权了结。

如果您认为美联储什么都没说,那您就完全理解错了。美联储暗示他们希望将2023年和2024年的美国基准利率提高至2.8%,这一水平高于中性利率。

美联储在告诉人们他们希望收紧金融状况。请记住这一句话,不要与美联储对抗:反之同样成立。

另外,本轮加息周期与以往的加息周期不同之处在于,目前的经济增长缺乏动力:美国经济尚未处于扩张的早期或开始阶段;美国经济的扩张正在大幅放缓。亚特兰大联储暗示美国第一季度的经济增长率为1.2%。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数基金仍位于下降趋势中,标普500指数基金在过去两天反弹的走势看起来与1月28日至29日的反弹,以及2月24日至25日的反弹走势类似。

我并不认为目前有太多其他原因可以解释,由于今天是到期日,部分看跌期权了结。

Rates

此外,收益率曲线上显示7年期美国国债的收益率高于10年期美国国债收益率,我认为5年期美国国债收益率也会很快高于10年期的。

这些迹象都不是股市的利好。

3月16日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、美国国债收益率

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