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美股或重演2018年四季度走势

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美联储本周举行重要会议,正如我此前反复指出的,我预期美联储将宣布减少资产购买在11月份的会议时启动。

目前而言,市场对美联储缩表表现的很冷静,不过我不知道这种情况会持续多久。考虑到目前的市场估值,美联储拧紧水龙头的情况似乎尚未被纳入价格中。标普500指数的交易价格为12个月远期市盈率预期的20.5倍。

我了解投资者们会争辩称低利率推涨更高市盈率;很简单的逻辑,但事实并非如此。

如果真的是这种逻辑,那么德国股市和日本股市的估值应该高于美股的估值,是实际上并没有。

尽管德日有着不错的增长率,两国的股市仍出现折价。

Global Valuations

最终,推动市盈率的因素是经济增长率,然而美国与全球各地的增长率均在下滑。经济增长率的高点已过,美联储等待了太久才开始缩表的进程。

现在,美联储将开始缩表,而这又将削弱全球经济增长。市场不会喜欢这种情况,市场可能会以其所知道的最好的方法拒绝美联储的政策变化——放大市场波动率。

美联储选择不缩表并不是一件简单的选项,债券市场不会喜欢这种情况。通货膨胀率将增长。

从政治角度而言,美国政府需要维持低利率从而为预算提供资金,如果美联储本次无法安抚债券市场(的情绪),美国财政部将不得不以更高的利率发行国债。鲍威尔被逼到了墙角。

这种情况几乎与2018年“利率并非中性”或“自动驾驶”时刻一样。我们明天将能了解到市场对美联储声明的反应。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数今日开盘高走,不过未能维系住涨幅,收盘下跌近10点。日内盘中高点下滑了近1%,如果您在周一股市从低点反弹以及今日早晨跳空填补缺口后自认是做多者,收盘走势会令您很失望。

标普500指数期货在我看来似乎是目前最好的技术指标,我们在 月初观察到的高点可能是5浪的末尾,我们目前正处于调整浪之中。

我尚未完全数清目前的模式。不过我相信这可能是第一个下行边的开始。趋势线看起来很强劲并且明确。趋势线的下一个支撑线水平位于4240点附近,与7月中旬的支撑线吻合。

费城房地产指数基金 (HGX)

房地产板块的走势仍很糟糕,房地产指数接近触及7月低点。相对强弱指数RSI显示费城房地产指数基金尚未出现超卖,未来仍将出现进一步下跌。费城房地产指数基金的200日移动均线处于危险之中。

道琼斯运输业平均指数(DJT)

道琼斯运输业平均指数昨日跌破其200日移动均线,并且在今日再次下跌。图表走势看起来不妙。

联邦快递 (FDX)

联邦快递明日不会对市场提供任何助益。联邦快递今天晚上公布的季度财报不及分析师预期,并且警告更高的薪酬开支。

联邦快递的股价在盘后交易时段下跌了逾4%,并且在235美元处找到强支撑。联邦快递需要维系住这一支撑线,否则我们可能会看到填补183美元处的缺口。

UPS快递 (UPS)

UPS快递今天下跌约2%。需填补的缺口在178美元处。

优步公司(UBER)

优步公司表示其调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)有望出现正值,其股价上涨10%。

优步公司的股价直接跳升至45美元的阻力线处并遇阻。

现在我们知道了为何最近几周有如此多的看涨期权交易。

9月21日美股评论所提及的股票:联邦快递、UPS快递、优步公司

9月21日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、费城房地产指数基金、道琼斯运输业平均指数

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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