全球粮油价格持续飙升

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发生了什么?

据联合国(UN)周五公布的最新数据显示,上个月食品价格跃升至历史新高。

这意味着什么?

对食品价格的担忧已经持续了一段时间:粮食收成深受去年恶劣天气的影响;封锁后的需求反弹,使得供应越发捉襟见肘。而乌克兰战争更是火上浇油:乌克兰是世界上最大的葵花籽油出口国,并与俄罗斯一起占全球小麦贸易的30%左右。这场冲突对更广泛层面上的全球贸易造成的损害也是不言而喻的。综合所有因素,上个月追踪全球食品价格的联合国指数比前一个月上涨了 13%,这意味着自 2020 年中期以来,该指数已上涨了 50% 以上。

为什么需要关注?

聚焦:闪烁其辞的美国

联合国一直表示,粮油价格形势可能会变得更加严峻,尤其是现在一些国家为优先满足本国需要而限制了出口。美国提出了这样想法,即澳大利亚和印度只需增加出口,就能够覆盖乌克兰和俄罗斯一半左右的小麦产量。至于美国计划做什么呢?据说美国正在计划可能会在未来某时做某种投资,也许吧?

前景:便宜但是不愉快

英国人正在感受到这种影响:上周公布的数据显示,上个月英国的杂货消费低于 2021 年 3 月。购物者也在用更便宜的品牌来代替名牌产品,白标商品的销量正在上升。这可能就是为什么 Lidl 和 Aldi 这两家销售自主品牌产品的德国折扣店上个月在英国引起了轰动,并跻身少数获得英国市场份额的零售商之一。

Originally Posted April 8, 2022 – Unamused Bouche

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