美国就业率数据对经济并非好消息

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发生了什么事情?

美国周五公布的数据显示出9月份新增的就业岗位超过了市场预期。

这意味着什么?

有数个微小的迹象显示,美联储激进的加息策略可能已经开始让火热的就业市场开始冷却下来了。

一方面,上周稍早时候公布的数据显示,谨慎的雇主在8月份削减了超过100万个职位空缺,这是20多年来最大的月度降幅之一。

另一方面,周五公布的数据显示出美国9月仅增加了26.3万个工作岗位,这是自2021年4月以来的最低月度新增岗位数字。

不过市场认为这仍然不够:经济对雇员的需求有所减缓,不过许多企业仍抱怨人手不足,被迫在持续减少的就业总人口中争夺新雇员。

这可能是为何美联储关注的工资增长数据,一项美联储试图抑制以帮助控制通胀率的指标,仍较去年同期强劲增长了5%。

为何值得关注?

更大的图景:美联储想推高失业率

美国9月失业率意外跌至3.5%,创下50年新低。不过美联储预期明年失业率将达到4.4%,美联储很有可能会采取行动以实现这一目标。

因为为了抑制通货膨胀,美联储需要的不仅是“低于趋势”的经济增长,还需要更高的失业率。

这也是为何绝大多数交易者目前将美联储在下个月议息会议上将连续第4次加息75个基点纳入定价的原因。

对于市场而言:机构认为跌势未止

新闻传播开后,投资者预期美国公司们和更大范围的经济将面临更多痛苦的局面,标普500指数随之下跌。

对于刚刚经历了20年来表现最糟糕的一个9月的市场而言,糟糕的情况可能尚未结束:从高盛到汇丰银行的大量银行预期标普500指数在年底会低于目前的点位。

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