美股估值可能没有那么离谱

FTSE Russell

Contributor:
FTSE Russell
Visit: FTSE Russell

By:

Head of Global Markets Research


美股市场自3月下旬以来的史无前例反弹将发达国家股市的市盈率推高至数年来的最高水平。市净率同样反弹,虽然相对幅度不大。

罗素1000指数市盈率创15年新高

罗素1000指数的市盈率从3月份低点反弹了8点,远超其他发达市场的平均5点涨幅。美股大型股的市盈率为21.8倍,不仅突破了2月份中期的高点也突破了15年来的高点。

这同时也是美国大型股指数相对于其他发达市场的最高溢价之一,其他发达市场的市盈率约为15-16倍。

不同地区12个月市盈率比较

来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年6月15日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。

其他发达市场一样,罗素1000指数的市净率尚未完全恢复至疫情之前的峰值。不过,罗素1000指数的市净率为3.2,位列过去15年中最高水平之中,与此同时其他市场的市净率仍接近金融危机时的低点。结果就是美国股市与其他发达市场指数之间的差距大大增加。

各个地区12个月市净率比较

来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年6月15日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。

从两个指标观察,美股市场历史上一直在绝对值和相对值上更昂贵。不过,从更广泛的角度观察,差距比人们印象中要小得多。

更广泛视角下完全不同的故事

为将这一观点图像化,我们列出自2000年以来罗素1000指数(蓝色线)和FTSE欧洲(不包括英国)指数(灰色线)的分值。

我们使用Z评分系统得出这些综合评分,用以测量包括ROE在内的7个传统的估值指标与长期历史均值的比值。分值区间从低到高为1-5。

如图所示,罗素1000指数和FTSE欧洲(不包括英国)指数的估值从3月下旬的低点反弹至目前的4附近,超过自2013年以来的平均分值3,不过低于15年的高点。

罗素1000指数与FTSE欧洲(不包括英国)指数估值比较

来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年6月15日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。

从更加细化的视角,下面的热点图显示了7个评估指标中的每一个在区间内的值。在市净率,销售与现金比率(得分为4),罗素1000指数明显高于其他市场的指数。FTSE欧洲(不包括英国)指数(与FTSE英国指数)在本益成长比最高(得分为5).新兴市场在6个指数中看起来是最便宜的,得分为2.9,主要反映在市现率上的得分低于大多数同类市场。

各国市场评分热点图——综合

来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。截至2020年6月15日的数据。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。

Disclosure: FTSE Russell

Interactive Advisorsa division of Interactive Brokers Group, offers FTSE Russell Index Tracker portfolios on its online investing marketplace. Learn more about the Diversified Portfolios.

This material is not intended as investment advice. Interactive Advisors or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.

© 2022 London Stock Exchange Group plc and its applicable group undertakings (the “LSE Group”). The LSE Group includes (1) FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”), (2) Frank Russell Company (“Russell”), (3) FTSE Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. and FTSE Global Debt Capital Markets Limited (together, “FTSE Canada”), (4) MTSNext Limited (“MTSNext”), (5) Mergent, Inc. (“Mergent”), (6) FTSE Fixed Income LLC (“FTSE FI”), (7) The Yield Book Inc (“YB”) and (8) Beyond Ratings S.A.S. (“BR”). All rights reserved.

FTSE Russell® is a trading name of FTSE, Russell, FTSE Canada, MTSNext, Mergent, FTSE FI, YB and BR. “FTSE®”, “Russell®”, “FTSE Russell®”, “MTS®”, “FTSE4Good®”, “ICB®”, “Mergent®”, “The Yield Book®”, “Beyond Ratings®“ and all other trademarks and service marks used herein (whether registered or unregistered) are trademarks and/or service marks owned or licensed by the applicable member of the LSE Group or their respective licensors and are owned, or used under licence, by FTSE, Russell, MTSNext, FTSE Canada, Mergent, FTSE FI, YB or BR. FTSE International Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority as a benchmark administrator.

All information is provided for information purposes only. All information and data contained in this publication is obtained by the LSE Group, from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human and mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information and data is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. No member of the LSE Group nor their respective directors, officers, employees, partners or licensors make any claim, prediction, warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly, either as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability of any information or of results to be obtained from the use of the FTSE Russell products, including but not limited to indexes, data and analytics or the fitness or suitability of the FTSE Russell products for any particular purpose to which they might be put. Any representation of historical data accessible through FTSE Russell products is provided for information purposes only and is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

No responsibility or liability can be accepted by any member of the LSE Group nor their respective directors, officers, employees, partners or licensors for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance involved in procuring, collecting, compiling, interpreting, analysing, editing, transcribing, transmitting, communicating or delivering any such information or data or from use of this document or links to this document or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential or incidental damages whatsoever, even if any member of the LSE Group is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of, or inability to use, such information.

No member of the LSE Group nor their respective directors, officers, employees, partners or licensors provide investment advice and nothing contained herein or accessible through FTSE Russell products, including statistical data and industry reports, should be taken as constituting financial or investment advice or a financial promotion.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts and graphs are provided for illustrative purposes only. Index returns shown may not represent the results of the actual trading of investable assets. Certain returns shown may reflect back-tested performance. All performance presented prior to the index inception date is back-tested performance. Back-tested performance is not actual performance, but is hypothetical. The back-test calculations are based on the same methodology that was in effect when the index was officially launched. However, back- tested data may reflect the application of the index methodology with the benefit of hindsight, and the historic calculations of an index may change from month to month based on revisions to the underlying economic data used in the calculation of the index.

This document may contain forward-looking assessments. These are based upon a number of assumptions concerning future conditions that ultimately may prove to be inaccurate. Such forward-looking assessments are subject to risks and uncertainties and may be affected by various factors that may cause actual results to differ materially. No member of the LSE Group nor their licensors assume any duty to and do not undertake to update forward-looking assessments.

No part of this information may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the applicable member of the LSE Group. Use and distribution of the LSE Group data requires a licence from FTSE, Russell, FTSE Canada, MTSNext, Mergent, FTSE FI, YB, BR and/or their respective licensors.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from FTSE Russell and is being posted with permission from FTSE Russell. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or FTSE Russell and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容(包括文章和评论)仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品,也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透证券,盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金或其他人士的过往或将来表现,或其提供的信息之准确性做出任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易适合于您。

发布内容中提及的证券或其他金融产品并非适合所有投资者。发布的内容并未从您的投资目标、财务状况或需求出发,并不旨在向您推荐任何证券、金融产品或策略。过往业绩并不代表将来表现,如有需要,请咨询相关人士获取专业的建议。

盈透或其分支机构的雇员所发布的任何信息均基于公认的真实可信的信息。然而,盈透或其分支机构无法保证信息的完整性、准确性和适当性。盈透不对任何金融产品其过去或将来的表现作出任何声明或担保。交易员睿智中发布的文章并不代表盈透认为任何特定金融产品或交易策略适合您。