美股点评:苹果、亚马逊

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management


美股市场今日再次收盘持平,标普500指数收盘于4182点。标普500指数持续试探4185点附近区间的上端,我不确定该指数将向何方突破。

鉴于交易量的微薄,该指数实际上可能在任何一天向任意一个方向突破。

我不打算猜测标普500指数会向何方突破。长期趋势不会改变:不论你如何衡量,估值很高了。

我数周乃至数月以来一直表示市场的风险位于历史高水平,而估值正常化的纠正将导致急剧下挫,我并不是说仅仅5%的下跌。

我认为回调会指向3200-3400点。我并不是唯一这么想的人。摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊近期表达了与我类似的观点。所以我并不是独自一人。


美联储推动市场更高的通货膨胀预期,并且在某种程度上达成了一半的目标。

盈亏平衡点通胀预期自12月以来一直超过2%。标普500指数数月来追逐着更高的通胀预期,不过你可以观察到近期的分歧。所以两者的相关性被打破了吗?或者标普500指数将下跌?我预期我们将很快看到结果。

美联储面临的问题是,加息不仅仅是美国一个国家的事情,而是全球的事情。

各国的利率均在上涨。德国10年期国债收益率处于大规模突破的前期。这是为何美元指数一直下跌的原因;利率价差再次缩小。

苹果公司(AAPL)

苹果公司公布的季度业绩财报好于市场预期,毫不奇怪其股价上涨。

我曾评论指出如果苹果公司未给出盈利指引,该公司的可能会升至138美元,然后出现抛售。

苹果公司给出的盈利指引没有上季度的高。我认为这将导致(我预期)的走势发生,该公司股票明天将被抛售。

对于一家公司财报公布的营收和收益远超预期的情况来说,苹果公司的股票本应该上涨超2%。

AMD (AMD)

AMD公司公布的季度财报业绩有不错的营收、收益和盈利指引。

不过利润率不令人满意。AMD股票跳空高涨,填补了90美元处的缺口,不过其后下跌。我认为收购Xilinx的交易使得AMD公司股票除了下跌无处可去。


亚马逊(
AMZN)

想象下如果AWS业绩令人失望,投资者明天将对亚马逊做些什么。看看发生在微软公司股票上的。

就像我昨日指出过的那样,我找到的对微软公司唯一不利的是Azure,Azure按照固定汇率计算的增速为46%,未达到50%的预期;否则微软的财报将是一个很棒的季度财报,并有很棒的盈利指引。

如果AWS的业绩不及预期,或者亚马逊的运营收入不及预期,请当心。

亚马逊财报营收超预期是不够的,因为每个人都明白亚马逊的大部分运营收入来自于AWS部门。

Facebook (FB)

如果Facebook的股票在明天能维系住涨幅,我会深表敬佩。当然,Facebook第一季度的业绩很不,不过您阅读了该公司的通稿了吗?

Facebook公司表示该季度财报将是一段时间以来最好的一个季度:增长乏力;更多广告面临的阻力。我们明天将看到Facebook的走势。

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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