美联储接下来会买入股票吗?

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Director of Fixed Income Research

美联储近期扩大了其量化宽松项目中所购买的资产类别范围只公司债券和次级投资债券,作为此前买入美国国债和机构住房抵押贷款证券(MBS)的补充。

鉴于冠状病毒给美国经济带来严重而广泛的冲击,这引发投资者关心的一个问题,美联储是否会效仿日本央行,将美国股票纳入其量化宽松资产购买的范围?

想要回答这一问题,需要将美联储的量化宽松计划放在历史的角度观察。

美联储在2008/2009年首次采用了量化宽松这一“非常规”的货币政策,因为当时的情况依靠零利率政策不足以进一步刺激美国经济,不能恢复充分的就业与稳定的通货膨胀。

量化宽松政策在此后推出了多轮包括不同规模和期限的资产购买计划,用于补充利率政策和对远期利率指引的调整。

初期的量化宽松政策始于购买美国国债和MBS以解决信贷紧缩的问题

在金融危机期间及以后,美联储量化宽松政策通过降低资金成本,在次级抵押贷款市场崩溃后让住房市场解冻以缓解公司和家庭的“信贷紧缩”。美联储通过买入美国国债以及机构MBS以实现这一目标。

美联储还买入国债通货膨胀保护证券防止过低的通货膨胀预期,并在2012年制定了2%的通货膨胀目标。

如下图所示,在执行量化宽松政策的过程中,美联储的资产负债表从2008年9月时的不足1万亿美元增长到今日的超过5万亿美元。

美联储资产负债表

资料来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。2020年4月数据

但是,冠状病毒的冲击导致量化宽松规模的扩大,资产质量标准的下降

目前,冠状病毒引发的经济暂停给美联储带来全新的与更大的挑战。最初的量化宽松政策局限于金融体系和住房市场上。下面列表显示出自第一季度冠状病毒影响经济以来美联储政策的变化。

美联储在初期采取了与金融危机时期相同的量化宽松政策,推出零利率政策并恢复购买美国国债和MBS证券。但是随着疫情的加剧,美联储扩大了量化宽松计划购买资产的范围,并降低了所购买的资产质量标准。

冠状病毒危机期间美联储主要政策时间表

3月3日至15日:美联储利率两次降息至0-0.25%

3月15日:再推出量化宽松计划,将在未来数月时间里买入5000亿美元的美国国债,2000亿美元的机构MBS证券。

3月23日:推出定期资产抵押证券贷款工具(TALF),并宣布支持银行贷款给消费者和企业。推出公司信贷工具。承诺买入7000亿美元的美国国债和MBS。

4月9日:买入至多7500亿美元的一级和二级市场公司信贷工具,允许买入包括高收益ETFs在内的公司债券。推出多个项目以确保贷款给中小型企业。买入至多5000亿美元的州与市政债券。

以上规模的量化宽松资产购买是否足够?

美联储目前准备买入包括美国国债、MBS、市政债券,投资级与高收益债券等多种资产,这显示出美联储量化宽松政策逐步扩大到买入高风险资产的过程。

降低量化宽松计划所购入资产的质量会增加美联储资产负债表的风险。

不过,如果美联储仅仅简单买入国债这样的无风险资产,在货币政策接近或处于流动性陷阱的情况下,则美联储不可能促进经济增长或提振通货膨胀。

美联储目前购入的资产类别不包括股票。下图显示的是,由于家庭净资产与股票估值存在相关性,美联储购买股票可能有助于为家庭净资产撑起安全网。

如果这样的话,将有助于阻止通货紧缩压力导致的消费者信心和支出的崩溃。

美国股票和家庭净资产

资料来源:富时罗素/Refinitiv。数据截至2020年4月

美联储近期买入高收益债券的举动可能证明是关键举措

美联储购买股票(较债券更大的资产类别)也将是对4月9日宣布买入公司债券政策的补充。

可以说美联储买入包括高收益率债券在内的公司债已经冒着巨大的道德风险,所以接下来买入股票也没有多大的阻力。

最后,作为量化宽松政策的一部分,日本央行自2013年4月以来一直在买入股票ETF,美联储(买入股票)也没有第一个吃螃蟹的危险。

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