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How to Create Kalman Filter in Python – Part VI

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See Part IPart II , Part III,  Part IV and Part V of this series to get started with the statistical terms and concepts used in Kalman Filter.

Pairs trading using Kalman Filter in Python

(Thanks to Chamundeswari Koppisetti for providing the code.)

Let us start by importing the necessary libraries for Kalman Filter

# Import a Kalman filter and other libraries
!pip install pykalman
!pip install qq-training-wheels auquan_toolbox –upgrade
from pykalman import KalmanFilter
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from scipy import poly1d
from datetime import datetime

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
plt.style.use(‘seaborn-darkgrid’)
plt.rcParams[‘figure.figsize’] = (10,7)

We will consider the 4 year (Aug 2015 – Aug 2019) Adjusted Close price data for Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO.NS) and Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO.NS).

We have included the data file in the zip file along with the code for you to run on your system later. The link to download the files can be found at the end of the blog.

# Define path where data file is saved in your system
#path = ‘../data/’
data = pd.read_csv(path +’data.csv’, index_col =’Date’)
data[‘ratio’] = data[‘BAJAJ’]/ data[‘HERO’]
stock_1 = data[‘BAJAJ’]
stock_2 = data[‘HERO’]

# Calculate the hedge ratio for pairs trading
ratio =stock_1/stock_2
data.head()

The output will be as follows:

How to Create Kalman Filter in Python

Hyperparameters of Kalman Filter can be changed for instance:

  • Multi dimensional transition matrices, to use more of past information for making expected results at each point
  • Different values of observation and transition covariance

kf = KalmanFilter(transition_matrices = [1],
observation_matrices = [1],
initial_state_mean = 0,
initial_state_covariance = 1,
observation_covariance=1,
transition_covariance=.0001)

mean, cov = kf.filter(ratio.values)
mean, std = mean.squeeze(), np.std(cov.squeeze())

plt.figure(figsize=(15,7))
plt.plot(ratio.values – mean, ‘m’, lw=1)
plt.plot(np.sqrt(cov.squeeze()), ‘y’, lw=1)
plt.plot(-np.sqrt(cov.squeeze()), ‘c’, lw=1)
plt.title(‘Kalman filter estimate’)
plt.legend([‘Error: real_value – mean’, ‘std’, ‘-std’])
plt.xlabel(‘Day’)
plt.ylabel(‘Value’)

How to Create Kalman Filter in Python

Stay tuned for the next installment, in which Rekhit will showcase how to use Python for a Pairs trading strategy script.

Download the full code: https://blog.quantinsti.com/kalman-filter/.

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