This article first appeared on Alpha Architect Blog.
The Size Premium in Equity Markets: Where Is the Risk?
- Stefano Ciliberti, Emmanuel Sérié, Guillaume Simon, Yves Lempérière, and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
- Journal of Portfolio Management
- A version of this paper can be found here
- Want to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category
The size premium is one of the factors that we have researched and dug into several times on the blog. You can find just a few here, here, and here. This paper though took a fresh look at the size premium and adds a new perspective that we haven’t previously covered.
What are the research questions?
- Given various approaches to measuring the “size” of a company, is the total amount of daily traded dollars in a stock (ADV)(1) a better proxy for risk than SMB?
- Is CMH (“cold minus hot”) a better long term proxy for returns when compared to SMB?
What are the Academic Insights?
- MAYBE. The authors argue the use of market cap as a proxy for the size effect embeds biases in the L/S portfolio constructed to measure the SMB risk premium. Indeed, the lack of a clear relationship between beta and market cap (see left side of Exhibit 3) produces SMB portfolios with a significant low volatility exposure on the short side. Very small and very large-cap stocks have betas less than 1, while midcaps have betas larger than 1, a nontrivial result. A substitute (ADV—average daily transaction volume) is proposed with a better-behaved relationship with beta (see right side of Exhibit 3). ADV is conventionally used by practitioners as a measure of liquidity, although little is found in the academic literature regarding its’ use. For a stock, it represents the difficulty of unwinding a large position with little impact costs. The idea here is that the ADV measure can be used to determine a set of L/S portfolios (referred to as “cold” and “hot”) whose return would represent compensation for bearing liquidity risk.
- YES. ADV portfolios are less associated with the beta and low volatility biases noted previously and is, therefore, a better substitute for the market cap based construction of the risk factor, SMB. Cold stocks trade at a discount due to the difficulty associated with liquidity and Hot stocks are subject to heavier market scrutiny and therefore exhibit less mispricing. The profitability of the CMH set of portfolios is shown in Exhibit 2, where the t-stat on the slope is significant at 5.1 over not quite 70 years. The empirical argument that a risk premium label be attached to CMH portfolios, is the empirical observation that significant drawdowns are more often observed for small-cap/ADV stocks. However, the theoretical rationale and other empirical attributes of ADV/CMH require more work.
See the full article on Alpha Architect Blog:
Disclosure: Alpha Architect
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. Our full disclosures are available here. Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom).
This site provides NO information on our value ETFs or our momentum ETFs. Please refer to this site.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Alpha Architect and is being posted with permission from Alpha Architect. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Alpha Architect and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.