Cryptocurrencies are a new asset class, and researchers have just started to understand better fundamental forces which are behind their price action. A new research paper shows that Bitcoin’s price can be modeled by Metcalfe’s Law. Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) are in this characteristic very similar to Facebook as their value depends on the number of active users – network size …
Title: Bitcoin Spreads Like a Virus
We illustrate, by way of example, that Bitcoin’s long-term price is non-random and can be modeled as a function of the logistic growth of number of users n over time. Using observed data for both Facebook and Bitcoin, we derive the relationships between price, number of users, and time, and show that the resulting market capitalizations likely follow a Gompertz sigmoid growth function. This function, historically used to describe the growth of biological organisms like bacteria, tumors, and viruses, likely has some application to network economics. We conclude that the long-term growth rate in users has considerable effect on the long-term price of bitcoin.
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