Gold 2022 Outlook: Return to Trend with Lingering Upside Risks

By: Maxwell Gold, George Milling-Stanley, Diego Andrade, & Chi Kit Robin Tsui

  • Gold looks to resume its longer-term structural bull market as we look ahead to 2022
  • A key factor of consideration for gold remains the path and speed of monetary policy among global central banks
  • Potential for higher volatility may push investors to gold as a potential hedge against heightened market risks

After posting 18% and 25% gains in 2019 and 2020, respectively, the gold price is on pace to close out 2021 with a slight negative return.1 Following last year when record strength in investment demand offset record weakness in the jewelry sector, 2021 has been a period of recalibration for gold — reverting toward longer-term trend levels among demand sectors, with the price seeking to consolidate at a new higher base.

Looking ahead to 2022, there are several reasons to remain optimistic about gold’s outlook. The continued battle against COVID-19 and new variants, disruptions due to supply bottlenecks, rising consumer and commodity prices, and monetary policy shifts point to the likelihood of higher volatility on the horizon. Particularly set against the backdrop of an ongoing global pandemic, these headwinds may prove beneficial for gold as it looks to resume its longer-term bull market which commenced at the onset of the previous tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December 2015.

Here, we outline four macroeconomic themes that remain at the helm for gold’s 2022 outlook. Based on these themes, our base case outlook sees gold returning to long-term trend levels with a potential boost to the upside driven by further recovery in emerging markets, monetary and fiscal policy missteps, and heightened volatility.

gold may resume longer term trend following 2021 consolidation

Click here to read the full article


1Gold spot price in US dollars was down 6.52% year to date. Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors. Data as of November 30, 2021.


Bloomberg Commodity Index
A broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes that tracks 22 commodity futures and seven sectors. No one commodity can compose less than 2 percent or more than 15 percent of the index, and no sector can represent more than 33 percent of the index.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Bond TR Index
A flagship hard currency Emerging Markets debt benchmark that includes USD-denominated debt from sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and corporate EM issuers.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
A broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index
An unmanaged index that is comprised of issues that meet the following criteria: at least $150 million par value outstanding, maximum credit rating of Ba1 (including defaulted issues) and at least one year to maturity.

Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index
Measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market.

Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index
Measures US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury.

Dollar Index / US Dollar Index (DXY)
A currency benchmark that measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies: the euro (EUR), the yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF) and the Swedish krona (SEK). Its shorthand symbol in financial markets is “DXY.”

HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index
The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies, including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, distressed securities, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage, and relative value arbitrage. The strategies are asset weighted based on the distribution of assets in the hedge fund industry.

An equities benchmark that captures large- and mid-cap representation across 22 developed market countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 emerging markets countries. With 834 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

S&P 500 Index
A market-capitalization-weighted stock market index that measures the stock performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States.

Spot Gold Price
The price in spot markets for gold. In US dollar terms, spot gold is referred to with the symbol “XAU,” which refers to the price of one troy ounce of gold in USD terms.

US CPI Urban Consumers NSA Index
Measure of prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Originally Posted on December 14, 2021 – Gold 2022 Outlook: Return to Trend with Lingering Upside Risks


The views expressed in this material are the views of the Gold Strategy Team as of November 30, 2021 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.

The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.

There are risks associated with investing in Real Assets and the Real Assets sector, including real estate, precious metals and natural resources. Investments can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries.

Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.

Investing in commodities entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors.

This communication is not intended to be an investment recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from State Street Global Advisors and is being posted with permission from State Street Global Advisors. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or State Street Global Advisors and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Hedge Funds

Hedge Funds are highly speculative, and investors may lose their entire investment.

Disclosure: Forex

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at