This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.

Natural Gas Prices End The Week Virtually Unchanged From Last Friday


Chief Weather Analyst

Friday, August 09, 2019 at 7:35PM

If you took this past week off and are just now checking in, you’d think absolutely nothing had happened, as natural gas prices ended almost exactly the same as the prior week, with the September contract down just 2 ticks on the week.

Of course, the week had its usual moves along the way, plunging to a new prompt month multi-year low of 2.029 Monday morning before recovering. There were a few more attempts to dip under the 2.10 level throughout the week, including Friday morning, but none of them held. The reason? Bullish and bearish factors continue to battle for control in determining the next move. We highlighted Thursday how the reported build in the latest EIA report was less than expected, but hardly bullish when comparing the same week in previous years.

The LNG decline remains a bearish force as well, one which the market may be stuck with for another couple of weeks yet.

With less natural being taken into LNG plants, the next couple of EIA reports will show inflated builds relative to what they otherwise would.

We also had new production highs this week.

On the bullish side, we have the weather pattern, which remains in its hot-biased mode, with above normal demand overall for the foreseeable future.

This has been the mode of the pattern ever since the demise of the El Niño base state back in late June.

One key change occurred this past week, however. Notice the lack of heat in Texas on the above map, as the strongest heat since the pattern turned hotter has been in the eastern U.S. Texas is now seeing its hottest weather of the summer, with 100 or better in the major cities of Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. This stronger heat is forecast to continue at least for another week or so, as seen on our official forecast maps.

Because Texas is a very important state when it comes to natural gas usage, stronger heat there can lead to higher natural gas burns, which we have seen confirmed in this week’s data. Now we take a timeout before the battle resumes when the market opens Sunday evening, when eyes will be on the fresh set of fundamentals data and the latest runs of the weather models. Our unique methodology of combining weather and fundamentals can help offer clarity in these times when the picture is blurred by competing factors.

Disclosure: Bespoke Weather Services

Disclaimer: Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this note to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this post or any opinions expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bespoke Weather Services and is being posted with permission from Bespoke Weather Services. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Bespoke Weather Services and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at

trading top