Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 189,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 26,400 MT were reported. Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates! Once we get passed the WASDE report, attention will quickly turn back to weather. There are some forecasts calling for good precipitation across the Northern Plains over the next 36 hours.
Technicals: Technicals are little changed form yesterday’s session, keeping our outlook and levels intact. We love technicals, do not get that wrong, but we acknowledge that this is a weather market, which is the main catalyst in price action and money flow. That does not mean they are worthless; it just means that they take a backseat, and it likely means that there will likely be plenty of shorter-term trading opportunities for traders on both sides of the market.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 706 ¼-708 ½**, 735 ¼**
Pivot: 691-696 ¾
Support: 673 ¼-676***, 660 ¾-666****
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 15,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 12 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 105,000 MT were reported. Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates! Once we get passed the WASDE report, attention will quickly turn back to weather. There are some forecasts calling for good precipitation across the Northern Plains over the next 36 hours.
Technicals: Short term opportunities continue to be plentiful on both sides of the market, we expect this trend to continue a little longer. With the ever-changing forecasts, we will see shifts in money flow. Weekend weather and the Sunday night open will continue to be a big wild card, so be sure to manage your risk appropriately before the weekend.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1612 ¾-1623 ½**, 1645-1650**, 1667 ½**
Support: 1535 ¾-1540 ½**, 1500-1506**, 1490 ½****
Chicago Wheat (July)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1.
Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates!
Technicals: Chicago wheat continues to be the laggard of the bunch as the market continues to consolidate near our pivot pocket, 679-681 ½. The recent trading ranges between support/pivot/resistance have presented a lot of great short-term opportunities, we are looking to keep watching that until we see a breakdown or breakout. Longer-term, our bias remains on the bearish side of things.
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 700-708 ¾**, 720**
Pivot: 679 ½-681 ½
Support: 669-671***, 659-661**, 615-620**
Originally Posted on June 10, 2021
The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.
Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.
Bullish – Outright bullish
Bullish/Neutral – Bullish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner
Neutral/Bullish – relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint
Neutral/Bearish – relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint
Bearish/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner
Bearish – Outright bearish
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