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All Eyes on USDA

By:

Vice President of Blue Line Futures

Corn (July)

Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 189,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 26,400 MT were reported. Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates! Once we get passed the WASDE report, attention will quickly turn back to weather. There are some forecasts calling for good precipitation across the Northern Plains over the next 36 hours.

Technicals: Technicals are little changed form yesterday’s session, keeping our outlook and levels intact. We love technicals, do not get that wrong, but we acknowledge that this is a weather market, which is the main catalyst in price action and money flow. That does not mean they are worthless; it just means that they take a backseat, and it likely means that there will likely be plenty of shorter-term trading opportunities for traders on both sides of the market.

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Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 706 ¼-708 ½**, 735 ¼**

Pivot: 691-696 ¾

Support: 673 ¼-676***, 660 ¾-666****

Soybeans (July)

Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 15,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 12 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 105,000 MT were reported. Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates! Once we get passed the WASDE report, attention will quickly turn back to weather. There are some forecasts calling for good precipitation across the Northern Plains over the next 36 hours.

Technicals: Short term opportunities continue to be plentiful on both sides of the market, we expect this trend to continue a little longer. With the ever-changing forecasts, we will see shifts in money flow. Weekend weather and the Sunday night open will continue to be a big wild card, so be sure to manage your risk appropriately before the weekend.

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Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1612 ¾-1623 ½**, 1645-1650**, 1667 ½**

Pivot: 1587-1595

Support: 1535 ¾-1540 ½**, 1500-1506**, 1490 ½****

Chicago Wheat (July)

Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 325,900 MT for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began June 1.

Today’s USDA report will be out at 11:00 AM CT, click HERE for the estimates!

Technicals: Chicago wheat continues to be the laggard of the bunch as the market continues to consolidate near our pivot pocket, 679-681 ½. The recent trading ranges between support/pivot/resistance have presented a lot of great short-term opportunities, we are looking to keep watching that until we see a breakdown or breakout. Longer-term, our bias remains on the bearish side of things.

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Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 700-708 ¾**, 720**

Pivot: 679 ½-681 ½

Support: 669-671***, 659-661**, 615-620**

Originally Posted on June 10, 2021

The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.

Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.

Bullish – Outright bullish

Bullish/Neutral – Bullish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Neutral/Bullish – relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint 

Neutral

Neutral/Bearish – relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint

Bearish/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Bearish – Outright bearish

Disclosure: Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with permission from Blue Line Futures. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

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