The crash, and the BOUNCE. Be conscious of the idea that that may be “it” on the downside for now. We saw the “heart attack” drop at the 5pm open last night, and then a rally ensued overnight. We saw the NASDAQ and SPY correct more the 10%, and -8.1% in fairly short order, but bear in mind we still have elevated volatility that it may take a week or 2 to work through. All remains to be seen, but those are my most recent thoughts on the recent bout of volatility.
USA – SP500 +0.92, Nasdaq +1.66%
Europe – GER +1.23%, FRA +0.81%, UK +1.07%
Asia – Lower across the board, Shanghai -1.86%, KOSPI -1.00%
Plenty of immediate-term oversold signals in Foreign Currencies were triggered last night (All bullish trend)
GBP, Euro, Swiss, and CAD to name a few, as the US Dollar registers immediate overbought/bearish trend.
- Crude Oil registers an immediate oversold signal, while flirting with a trend breakdown (but its holding). News of weaker expected demand in the fossil fuels market assisted in the near-term momentum breakdown in Oil prices.
- Nat Gas also registering immediate oversold yesterday, followed by a 3.00% bounce in the overnight.
- Energy remains bullish trend and one of our favorite “longs” in our current “stagflationary” economic backdrop
|Market||Trend||Range Low||Range High||Notes|
|SP500||Bullish||3293||3522||Volatlity elevating >26.00 – warrants caution for bulls|
|Nasdaq 100||Bullish||10,952||12,040||VXN wrong side of 40.00|
|Russell 2000||Bearish||1492||1583||Holding better than the SP500 and NADAQ|
|10yr Yield||Bearish||0.60%||0.75%||Range bound trade, doing nothing following exit yesterday|
|VIX||Neutral||25.56||35.62||Bullish trend > 26.00|
|Oil||Bullish||37.01||42.06||Saudi’s cut prices, now immediate oversold/low end|
|Gold||Bullish||1911||1991||approaching oversold for long side trade|
|USD (Cash)||Bearish||91.89||93.54||Immediate overbought/bearish trend|
|EUR/USD||Bullish||117||119||Higher high/low in the range – bullish|
|USD/JPY||Bearish||105.31||106.75||Yen remains bullish vs the USD – tightening range|
Originally Posted on September 9, 2020 – Futures Markets Insights: September 9, 2020
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