- Stocks are doing what stocks usually do into holiday weekends, expanding range on both the SPY and Nasdaq’s. Notice the NASDAQ OB/OS signal dropping to 54! Which makes it neither OB or OS but almost “Goldilocks” if you will. I recall crude oil doing something very similar just prior to its big run higher. Just an observation. Our call remains following a period of respite, stocks are likely to continue to carry higher into year-end, and we’ll likely favor the tech heavy Nasdaq.
- Crude Oil is finally triggering an immediate OB signal of 93, but remains firmly bullish trend and of course carrying positive momentum. Oil is our leading indicator for inflation
- Gold and Silver are catching bids this morning on some dollar “weakness”, but I’m skeptical of this bounce to be honest, we’ll watch from here. Gold is carrying a bearish trend, along with Negative momentum in our model.
- Copper prices are still holding negative momentum, with a neutral trend. While we think another sell-off here likely presents an optimal buying opportunity into year-end, I’d be a little more patient here. Our price range below suggests another fall off to 408.00 is probable.
US Unemployment Claims fell to at pandemic low of 364K vs 415K last week, which only solidifies our hypothesis of a strengthening jobs market.
We’ll see you back here tomorrow for the June Non-Farm Payrolls data where the market is expected to add 600K new jobs.
|Market||Trend > 6 mo||Range Low||Range High||Momentum||OB/OS|
These are proprietary trading ranges from RJO Futures. They are calculated by a customized standard deviation tool.
Originally Posted on July 1, 2021 – Market Outlook: July 1, 2021
Disclosure: RJO Futures
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from RJO Futures and is being posted with permission from RJO Futures. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or RJO Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.
There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.
Disclosure: Digital Assets
Trading in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, is especially risky and is only for individuals with a high risk tolerance and the financial ability to sustain losses. Eligibility to trade in digital asset products may vary based on jurisdiction.
Disclosure: Futures Trading
Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.