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Covid Success, Covid Failure Dictate Recovery

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Global Economics – October 9, 2020

Introduction

After the great stimulus surge of March and April, central bankers have largely stepped aside, stressing that economic direction will ultimately turn on the path of the pandemic. The latest week offers a clear example of just how much the recovery is being dictated by Covid; those where it’s contained are doing better and those where it’s not aren’t doing much better at all.

The Global Economy

Employment

Switzerland’s labor market saw unexpected improvement in September. At 3.3 percent, the jobless rate was a tick below August reflecting a 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted decline in the number of people out of work to 155,191. There was also further good news on job prospects as vacancies climbed 3.2 percent in the month to 31,688. In addition, the number of companies resorting to shorter working hours fell a sizable 25.4 percent. 

Boosted by government support measures, September’s data are consistent with a very solid bounce back for third-quarter GDP growth. So long as the latest wave of coronavirus can be contained, and there were reports of rising rates in the country during the week, the Swiss economy should be on track for a decent run to year-end.

Swiss unemployment rate 2017-2020

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