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Employment Recovering But Not Inflation

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Global Economics – September 4, 2020

Introduction

Labor market updates were positives in the week, especially for Germany but also for the US where, however, improvement does appear to be slowing. Inflation updates have generally been soft across global economies with improvement to any degree hard to find. On net, the week’s results will keep up pressure for additional fiscal stimulus and perhaps keep alive talk of even more monetary stimulus (if that’s possible).

The Global Economy

Employment

The first major report on labor conditions in August was posted on Tuesday by Germany, and once again the results were surprisingly robust. The country’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.4 percent though the number of people out of work, at 2.9 million, continued to decline, down 9,000 following a 17,000 decline in July.

This was the first back-to-back decrease since January and February. There was also cautiously good news on job prospects as vacancies were up 4,000 at 564,000 for their first increase since March last year. The German government in the prior week extended a stimulus plan that will top up pay for workers affected by the pandemic until the end of 2021.

German unemployment rate

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