This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.

Market Outlook: Jan. 8, 2021

RJO Futures
Visit: RJO Futures


Senior Asset Manager

“Remember when I asked for your opinion? Yeah me neither.” – The stock market to every political narrative

Good morning,

The rundown:


That’s right, fresh All-time high’s yesterday, and of course “all-time is a long time”.  Stocks don’t care about hooligans storming the capitol, just like they didn’t care when our major cities were being torched by ingrates this summer.  Hello! McFly…It’s the cycle!  Its always about the cycle!  Growth accelerating/inflation accelerating through the first half of 2021 as y/y comps of macro data and corporate earnings and profits may perhaps express the greatest rate of change acceleration since post WW2 – Scenario 2 in the model remains our call until further notice.  On that note, stocks are now immediate OB within our range analysis – scale some back. 


The 10yr yield is up again overnight to 1.09% ahead of the US Unemployment report due out at 7:30am CST.  Perhaps the most significant development this week was surpassing the 1.00% level in 10yr yields as growth and inflation is set to continue their acceleration through Q1/Q2 2021.  We’re trade immediate OS this morning in the 30yr and 10yrs, trim some, so we can replant (get bigger) when yields move back to the low end of our range. 

US Dollar:

No coincidence that the dollar has ceased its decline this week as yields pressed through 1.00%.  But recognize that this trade isn’t likely to get too far on the upside in the near-term.  We do believe the Dollar has entered a secular bear market that may last for many years to come.  We’re still sellers of USD AT the top end of our range within the longer bear market cycle.  BONUS: Gold and Silver got hit overnight.  Gold is now at the low end of the range, remains bullish trend, but not one of our favorite places to be at the moment in a rising yields environment.  Remember up yields = up dollar = down Gold, and this is precisely the action we’re seeing today.  Ultimately we expect Gold to remain range bound for the near-term. 

MarketTrendRange LowRange HighNotes
SP500Bullish37103821IV PREMIUMS remain elevated
Nasdaq 100Bullish12,64613,047IV PREMIUMS remain elevated, but not a “lower high” in my range is showing up.
Russell 2000Bullish19832112Immediate OB – but this is not a SHORT recommendation – wait to buy at the low end.
10yr YieldBullish0.94%1.07%1.00% overnight…Growth/Inflation accelerating = short bonds/Long yields
VIXBearish21.0125.71We think Volatility remains a “sell side” trade from the top of the range….for now.
OilBullish48.3952.23nearing immediate OB levels here around $50.00
GoldBullish18801948Gold will look worse if it break 1860 – but at the moment it’s immediate term trade OS at low end of the range
USD (Cash)Bearish89.390.28Still drowning – short position in the USD is now rivaling the year 2006 – crowded trade here
EUR/USDBullish1.21.23Immediate OB – may be forming an immediate-term top
Bitcoin FuturesBullish27,48542000?Relentless buying in Bitcoin – not sure how much longer this lasts at this rate.  176% above the 200 day MA

These are proprietary trading ranges from RJO Futures. They are calculated by a customized standard deviation tool.

Originally Posted on January 8, 2021 – Market Outlook: Jan. 8, 2021

Disclosure: RJO Futures

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from RJO Futures and is being posted with permission from RJO Futures. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or RJO Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Forex

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Disclosure: Digital Assets

Trading in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, is especially risky and is only for individuals with a high risk tolerance and the financial ability to sustain losses. Eligibility to trade in digital asset products may vary based on jurisdiction.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at

trading top