This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.

Market Outlook: Mar. 4, 2021

RJO Futures
Visit: RJO Futures


Senior Asset Manager


While vol tends to sneak up on most, I can’t say that we weren’t ready for it.  Recognizing some key players in the FAANG stocks breaking down over the last week, AND the drastic w/w change in our IVOL signal, I actually rented a modest short position over the past few days in “growth” aka NASDAQ.  As I mentioned in yesterday’s letter, we remain bullish on the cycle, but with the VIX and VXN (NQ volatility) breaking to bullish trend in the last 24hrs, I need to stop and respect that signal.  Whether we hold bullish trend for more than a day remains to be seen (I don’t think it will).  Keep an eye out…the Russell 2000 has me interested, but wait for me on this. 


Buying/trading opportunities lay ahead.  

*We’re housing some Silver on our books that’s moved against us for a couple of days, but honestly, I see no imminent signs of trouble here.  Silver remains bullish in the model, and more importantly, bullish trend.  If we see a trend breakdown here, we’ll respect that bull to bear phase transition and exit with no questions asked. 

*Copper and Platinum are both correcting, very intriguing dips to look at buying here.     

*Oil/Energy – no dip here.  Despite the massive build in inventories of CL yesterday, we’re +5.00% over the past 2 days. 

China Stagflation?

Something to consider in regards to commodities, is China looks to be moving into a Scenario 3 set-up.  They are likely to begin to see some ‘stagnation’ in growth.  Of course China is the worlds largest consumer of commodities globally. This is something we’re monitoring closely, Shanghai -2.05% breaking trend last night. 

MarketTrendRange LowRange HighNotes
SP500Bullish37863876IVOL went back up overnight AFTER the big stock swoon. 
Nasdaq 100Bullish12,59313,298Same thing as SPY, IVOL back up to 23% from 9% yesterday
Russell 2000Bullish21732265IVOL 25% vs 23% yesterday – Russell remains the strongest of the major indexes
10yr YieldBullish1.30%1.55%Still has more immediate upside.
VIXNeutral22.0328.74Neutral trend, caution for stock bulls immediate term
OilBullish58.9563.66had a modest 2 correction, not gunning for the top of our range again. 
GoldBearish17031785Nothing but ominous skies here – could bounce, but won’t get too far.
USD (Cash)Bearish90.2191.41Manage the range – we got you out yesterday. 
EUR/USDBullish1.19861.2157upside down of the dollar.  Manage the range – may be trying to probe lower ground for a few weeks.
Bitcoin FuturesBullish46,32956,957textbook bounce from the low end of our range yesterday/day before

These are proprietary trading ranges from RJO Futures. They are calculated by a customized standard deviation tool.

Originally Posted on March 4, 2021 – Market Outlook: Mar. 4, 2021

Disclosure: RJO Futures

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from RJO Futures and is being posted with permission from RJO Futures. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or RJO Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Forex

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Disclosure: Digital Assets

Trading in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, is especially risky and is only for individuals with a high risk tolerance and the financial ability to sustain losses. Eligibility to trade in digital asset products may vary based on jurisdiction.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at

trading top