Navigating the Risk-Landscape

By:

President of Blue Line Futures

Market Activity

– Do not miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday

– Russian war crimes in areas around Kyiv, create calls for new sanctions.

– French President Macron spearheads push for immediate embargo on Oil and Coal from Russia, but not Natural Gas.

– Germany is opposed, but support from EU Commission is gaining traction.

– Crude Oil rises from session low of $98.05 to back above $102 ahead of U.S. open.

– China plans to extend lockdowns in Shanghai. Supposed to be lifted Tuesday local time. Will other lockdowns follow?

– Is China using lockdowns advantageously to soften price of commodities, mainly Crude Oil? We believe so.

– March Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday was a solid report. Although headline jobs were 59k less than expected, February’s was revised higher by 72k.

– Average Hourly Earnings were firm and Unemployment Rate hit 3.6%, lowest since pre-pandemic March 2020.

– Factory Orders due today at 9:00 am CT

– Services data due tomorrow.

– Look out for Fed speak.

– Elon Musk discloses 9.2% stake in Twitter.

E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4539.25, up 8.50 on Friday and 2.75 on the week

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,863.75, down 5.00 on Friday and up 108.00 on the week

– Price action rebounded strongly from Friday’s low. Despite big wave of buying in final minutes, session volume was average at best.

– Weekly chart shows a large tail left overhead following Thursday’s pullback from highs. Such damage is a negative factor.

– Strength ahead of Friday’s open and overnight, into today, has struggled at key resistance in the S&P at 4550.75-4554.

– Major three-star resistance above there at 4566.25-4574.75. A close above here invites renewed bullish momentum.

– Strong resistance overhead in the NQ aligning with the round 15,000 area.

– Pivot and point of balance will be crucial on the session at 4536.50-4539.25 in the S&P and 14,850-14,865 in the NQ; below here the bears can fight for momentum.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 4550.75-4554**, 4566.25-4574.75***, 4581.50-4583.50**, 4596**, 4604-4606**, 4614.25**, 4622.50**, 4633.50-4654.75***

Pivot: 4536.50-4539.25

Support: 4526.50**, 4512-4513.50**, 4501.25-4506.50***, 4493.25** 4439.50-4463****

NQ (March)

Resistance: 14,932**, 14,993-14,997***, 15,032-15,071**, 15,115-15,136**, 15,175-15,195**, 15,235**, 15,292-15,306***

Pivot: 14,850-14,865

Support: 14,808**, 14,690-14,755***, 14,572**, 14,380-14,447****

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled 99.27, down 1.01 on Friday and 14.63 on the week

– Oil on the mend as discussion for fresh sanctions on Russia, including energy, gains traction.

– Last week ended negatively due to Shanghai lockdowns and SPR release. If you missed it, Bill Baruch joined Yahoo Finance yesterday to discuss the SPR release.

– Series of higher lows from Friday’s 97.78, a failed attempt to stay below 3/29’s 98.44, has created a technical tailwind.

– Buyers stepped in front of major three-star support at 96.50

– Early rebound yesterday failed at our 104.55-104.75 level, now major three-star.

– The recurring balance are of 101.53-101.65 was surrendered late yesterday and today’s high failed.

– Downside of range discussed earlier this week, comes in at 96.50.

– Several layers of major three-star support below there, with most crucial coming in at 91.59-92.20

– Momentum indicators turning higher.

– Price action seen technically bullish while holding above our Pivot and point of balance at 101.53-101.97.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 103.09-103.53**, 104.55-104.75***, 107.54-107.82***, 108.75**

Pivot: 101.53-101.97

Support: 100.74-100.85**, 97.78-98.34***, 96.50***, 93.41-93.59***, 91.59-92.20***, 89.89***

Gold (June) / Silver (May)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1923.7, down 30.3 on Friday and 36.1 on the week

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.654, down 0.479 on Friday and down 0.961 on the week

– In case you missed it, Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloomberg yesterday to talk Gold and Silver.

– Gold and Silver each had a tough session on Friday but strength across the miners cannot be ignored.

– Two takeaways, old adage that miners can lead underlying and it has not been uncommon to see volatile month-end/beginnings for Gold and Silver.

– Gold has pulled off overnight low of 1918.1, ultimately holding major three-star support at 1923.7-1924.9; a very constructive groundwork considering the above notes.

– Silver battling well at support, but must regain major three-star resistance, in tight range. Noted in levels below.

– Look for continued action above our Pivot and point of balance in Gold to pave way for higher prices, at 1930.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1940-1944.7**, 1965.5-1972.5****

Pivot: 1930

Support: 1923.7-1924.9***, 1911.4**, 1900.4**, 1877.5-1881***, 1829.8-1835***

Silver (May)

Resistance: 25.19-25.25***, 25.61**, 25.88-26.16**** Support: 24.73-24.88**, 24.55**, 24.01-24.06**, 23.74***

Originally Posted on April 4, 2022 – Navigating the Risk-Landscape

The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.

Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.

Bullish – Outright bullish

Bullish/Neutral – Bullish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Neutral/Bullish – relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint 

Neutral

Neutral/Bearish – relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint

Bearish/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Bearish – Outright bearish

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