Producer Prices are Leading Indicator to Consumer Prices 

By:

President of Blue Line Futures

Market Activity

-U.S. Producer Price Index for March surges past expectations with a headline read of 11.2% YoY and +1.4% MoM.

– Core PPI at 9.2% YoY and 1.0% MoM

– China Trade Balance showed a widening surplus with Exports topping expectations at 14.7%.

– Although strong Exports a positive sign for the world economy, much has been in the news recently about China’s worsening prospects at home after battling a new virus outbreak. China’s Cabinet said RRR cuts will be used advantageously to aide growth.

– Earnings season underway.

– JPM missed EPS but topped Revenues and is down 3% ahead of the bell.

– BLK topped EPS but missed Revenues, stock is unchanged.

– Delta topped both top and bottom with less of a loss than expected, stock is +4.5% premarket

– UNH, TSM, WFC, MS, GS, C, and more tomorrow.

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E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4393.00, down 16.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,945.00, down 55.00

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 4431.75-4439.50**, 4447.50**, 4459.50-4466.75***, 4573.50**, 4483.50***

Pivot: 4414.50-4417

Support: 4393**, 4363.50-4380.25***, 4349**, 4320.25-4326.75***, 4253.75***

NQ (March)

Resistance: 14,099-14,105**, 14,175-14,197**, 14,312-14,327***, 14,447**, 14,498-14,540***

Pivot: 14,035

Support: 13,945-13,966**, 13,881**, 13,819-13,831***, 13,449-13,491****

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Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 100.60, up 6.31

– EIA expectations 0.863 mb Crude, -0.388 mb Gasoline, and -0.515 mb Distillates.

– Russian supply expected to fall 1.5 mb in April and 3 mb in May.

– Strong China Exports noted above, but specifically Imports of Crude Oil fell from 11.74 mbpd to 10.06 mbpd YoY. However, this was highly telegraphed over the last few weeks due to the virus. Also, China is seen as a very bullish factor for commodities, especially at lower prices.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 104.79-105.13***, 107.58-107.80***

Pivot: 101.98

Support: 100.56-101.09***, 99.70-99.88**, 98.52-98.95***, 96.92**, 96.03-96.50**

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Gold (June) / Silver (May)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1976.1, up 27.9

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.735, up 0.748

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1986**, 2007.9***

Pivot: 1973

Support: 1965.5**, 1954-1958**, 1944.7-1948.9***, 1923.7-1924.9***

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Silver (May)

Resistance: 25.77-25.88***, 26.16-26.18***, 26.68**, 27.50*** Support: 25.53-25.61**, 25.19-25.25**, 24.82-24.93***, 24.49**, 24.20-24.33***

Originally Posted on April 13, 2022

The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.

Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.

Bullish – Outright bullish

Bullish/Neutral – Bullish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Neutral/Bullish – relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint 

Neutral

Neutral/Bearish – relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint

Bearish/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner

Bearish – Outright bearish

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