Quarter Kicks Off with Jobs


President of Blue Line Futures

Market Activity

– March Nonfarm Payrolls to kick off the new quarter, due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations for 490,000 jobs but wage growth, an inflation indicator, a major focus. Estimates say +0.4% MoM and +5.5% YoY.

– A 5.5% YoY increase would match January as the highest since coming out of lockdowns in April and May 2020, at 8.0% and 6.6%.

– Wages have increased significantly, today’s 5.5% expected is YoY on a base comp of 4.2% in 2021. Pre-pandemic, YoY increases were around 3.0%.

– In February, wage growth cooled significantly rising by only 0.03% MoM.

– Unemployment Rate expected to fall to 3.7%, lowest since 3.5% in March 2020, pre-pandemic.

– The closely watched ISM Manufacturing, for March, due at 9:00 am CT, after final SPGI Manufacturing PMI at 8:45 am CT.

– Caixin Chinese Manufacturing for March whiffed at 48.1 versus 50.0. Big contraction

– Eurozone CPI hit record high of 7.5%.

– Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 56.5 from 57.0

Breaking News: Solid Nonfarm Payrolls. 431k jobs a small miss by 59k, but February was revised higher by 72k. Wage growth hot, but not really hotter than expected at 5.6% YoY and 0.4% MoM. Unemployment Rate down to 3.6%, lowest since March 2020.

E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4530.75, down 65.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,868.75, down 202.75

– S&P broke below major three-star support aligning with February 2nd and 9th, as well as Monday’s settlement gap. Near-term momentum has shifted to Neutral while below here.

– Still, a number of strong support levels buoying yesterday’s selling and paving way for consolidation higher overnight.

– S&P 100-day moving average 4527.

– Major three-star support in the S&P at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled 100.28, down 7.54

– Crude back below $100 after White House announced plan to release 180 mb from SPR.

– Latest wave down comes after contraction on China Manufacturing PMI and revision lower on Eurozone. Also, after meeting with Russia, India will continue to buy Russian Oil.

– India is the third largest importer of Crude Oil

Bill Baruch joined Yahoo Finance yesterday to discuss the SPR release.

– Early rebound yesterday failed at our 104.55-104.75 level, now major three-star.

– The recurring balance are of 101.53-101.65 was surrendered late yesterday and today’s high failed.

– Downside of range discussed earlier this week, comes in at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Gold (June) / Silver (May)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1954, up 15.0

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.133, up 0.20

– Gold and Silver failed to hold yesterday’s swing highs, leaving technical gaps at settlement.

– End of month volatility not uncommon.

Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloomberg yesterday to talk Gold and Silver.

– Nonfarm Payroll will be the big mover this morning, expectations discussed in the headline section.

– Bonds down sharply and U.S. Dollar up, weighing on Gold and Silver.

– Gold did clear strong resistance at 1944, but failed in front of rare major four-star resistance at 1965.5-1972.5.

– Silver struggled at major three-star resistance at 25.19-25.25.

– Pivot and point of balance crucial on the session, comes in at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Originally Posted on April 1, 2022 – Quarter Kicks Off with Jobs

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