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Weekly Market Recap: Jan. 6, 2020

The week in review

  • Consumer confidence at 126.5
  • Markit mfg. PMI at 52.4
  • ISM mfg. PMI at 47.2

The week ahead

  • Markit non-mfg. PMI
  • ISM non-mfg. PMI
  • International trade
  • ADP employment
  • Jobs report

Thought of the week

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released population estimates through July 1, 2019, revealing a continued slowdown in population growth. The population grew by just 0.5% or 1.5 million people, which is by some estimates the slowest growth rate in a century. This was driven by two factors: a decline in both the natural increase in population and net international migration. The natural increase, which is the number of births minus deaths, fell to one of the lowest levels since the Great Depression, while births themselves decreased to levels not seen since the mid-1980s, and deaths continued to rise. Net international migration fell to 595,348, nearly half the level it was just a few years ago, also the lowest in decades.

Slower population growth has significant implications for long-term growth because it limits both demand itself and the ability to meet demand. With weaker population growth, there is less demand in key sectors of the economy, such as housing and autos, and consumption broadly. For the demand that does exist, companies may have trouble meeting it given that the pipeline of available workers is not being adequately replenished by population growth or migration as older generations retire. In short, from both a supply and demand perspective, slower population growth makes it harder to achieve even 2% GDP growth in the long run.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.

JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc.

©JPMorgan Chase & Co., January 2020.

Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of January 6, 2020 or as of most recently available.

Disclosure: J.P. Morgan

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.

JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc.

 

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

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