This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.

Weekly Market Recap: May 4, 2020

The week in review

  • FOMC kept target rate at 0.00% – 0.25%
  • Consumer conf. fell from 120.0 to 86.9
  • Pending home sales at -10.8% m/m
  • Jobless claims at 3,839k
  • Headline/Core PCE at 1.3%/1.7% y/y
  • Markit/ISM mfg. PMI at 36.1/41.5

The week ahead

  • Markit/ISM non-mfg. PMI
  • Employment report

Thought of the week

As anticipated, the first quarter saw a sharp contraction in real GDP, with output falling 4.8% at an annual rate, marking the end of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. The largest contributor to the decline was a drop in consumption of -7.6%. Within goods, a decrease in durable goods was partially offset by higher consumer spending on at-home food and beverages. Household spending on services experienced a sharp decline and notably, health care spending fell as nonessential treatments were cancelled. Negative contributions from business fixed investment (-1.2%) and inventories (-0.5%) also contributed to the weakness.

Additionally, the halt in travel contributed to a decrease in exports, although this was offset by falling imports. Finally, housing and government spending provided modest boosts of 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. While the report was quite gloomy, GDP data will get much worse before getting better. The decline in economic activity in the first quarter reflected stay-at-home orders that were issued by governments in mid-March.

We are forecasting a much deeper contraction of roughly -25% annualized in the second quarter, due to lockdowns in April and many businesses likely remain shut for months to come. However, we expect a slow recovery to start in the second half of 2020 and a strong rebound next year when, hopefully, the pandemic will ease due to a better treatment or a vaccine.

JPM May 4 2020 chart of the week

Click here to access the material on J.P. Morgan’s website.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.

JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc.

©JPMorgan Chase & Co., May 2020

Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of May 4, 2020 or as of most recently available.

Disclosure: J.P. Morgan

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.

JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. and JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc.

 

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from J.P. Morgan and is being posted with permission from J.P. Morgan. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or J.P. Morgan and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

trading top