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Yesterday: “Eruption”. Today: Might As Well “Jump”

By:

Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers

(Special playlist here)

The message from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was quite clear yesterday: fiscal stimulus is crucial for boosting the economy because monetary accommodation is no longer sufficient.  Millions of Americans are asking “Where Have All the Good Times Gone”?  Markets were initially uncertain about how to react to that message, but they later warmed to the educational tone set by the Chair.  One might say they were “Hot for Teacher” when indices began a rapid advance in the afternoon.

We had actually begun to see some signs of life in underperforming value stocks.  Bank stocks were among those leading the advance.  I’m quite sure that “Jamie’s Cryin’” about the flat yield curve, but Mr. Dimon and other leading bankers had to be encouraged by some nascent steepening of longer maturities.

Then came the “Eruption” via a single tweet.  The fiscal stimulus talks were “D.O.A”.  House Speaker Pelosi and her ilk could simply “Beat It”.   Markets plunged, reversing the prior day’s significant advance, but not breaching the lows seen as long ago as, well, Friday.  One might ask, “Why Can This Be Love”?

Then, with little “Fair Warning”, the President changed course once again.  Targeted stimulus talks were back on the table.  Traders aren’t “Dancing in the Street”, but they are certainly celebrating the prospect.  There is nothing that markets like more than exogenous money entering the economy. “So This Is Love?”

Sorry, but I “Ain’t Talkin’ Bout Love”.  I am talking about the ramifications of stop and go fiscal negotiations for market volatility.  It is hard to see VIX making a meaningful move lower when such crucial talks remain truly uncertain.  If you ask whether I see an overarching plan in the President’s political machinations, I have to say “You Really Got Me”.

In the near term, I expect the markets’ movements to hinge upon around the clock news reports and tweets.  Those who are attempting to get a good night’s sleep without proper risk management can expect to toss and turn “And the Cradle Will Rock”.

RIP EVH. 

Source: Personal Photo take at the Metropolitan Museum of Art

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

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