Your Roadmap to Jobs Friday 


President of Blue Line Futures

Market Activity

– Nonfarm Payrolls for April are due at 7:30 am CT and 391k jobs are expected to have been added, a drop from 431k in March.

– Wage Growth or Average Hourly Earnings stands front and center, expected to be in line with March at +0.4% MoM and +5.5% YoY

– Much was said about Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data yesterday, Q1 divergence at -7.5% and +11.6% respectively, both outstripping expectations. Paid more for less.

– Despite massive relief rally Wednesday, the S&P did not clear resistance and risk-assets broadly reversed sharply.

– Rising rates and U.S. Dollar are the culprits, generally speaking. Yield of U.S. 10-year reached a high of 3.10% yesterday before settling in at 3.04%.

– Dollar and rates set in motion by Bank of England’s sloppy meeting. Hike approved by 6-3 vote, but dissenters called for 10% inflation, and shock to growth and income. British Pound lowest since July 2020.

– BoE lit a fire under the U.S. Dollar and their cautiousness stoked inflation.

– Inflation was further stocked, and thus a tailwind to yields, after it was announced the White House will be buying 60 mb of Crude to replenish SPR. Crude was already buoyant due to OPEC+ adding production they cannot. Then Senate passes antitrust bill pressuring OPEC.

– Also, cannot ignore technical failure at resistance for many assets and overall environment as institutions used the rally to take down exposure.

– We do think the door is wide open for a Goldilocks scenario today; Nonfarm not too hot, not too cold. U.S. Dollar is well off the overnight highs and staying contained at 104.00 certainly will help risk-assets.

E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4143.25, down 152.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,858.00, down 673.25

– Most volume in both S&P and NQ since March 16th. More volume in the final 30-minute bounce than first 30 minutes after bell. But selling was very steady for the first 90 minutes with heavy volume.

– Measured downside was achieved Monday, re-fishing for such will not be as easy.

– We are now outright Neutral.

– Tremendous damage created from the reversal and washout.

– High into yesterday’s close held overnight and creates steady overhead resistance at 4143.25-4150 that must be regained or selling will continue.

– Similarly, the NQ must regain and trade decisively above major three-star resistance at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Crude Oil (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 108.26, up 0.45

– Crude was pulled down with broad risk selling yesterday.

– Rebounding nicely overnight as EU’s sanctions on Russian Oil moving ahead after minor tweak allowing Hungary and Slovakia to purchase Russian Oil through 2024, instead of 2023

– U.S. Dollar Index hits highest since December 2002, before backing off.

– Yesterday’s high was 111.37, perfect achievement of our upside target of $111.

– Higher lows since yesterday’s reversal, very constructive and align with holding out above 106-107. Major three-star supports noted below.

– Bulls in the driver’s seat into the weekend and reaching for higher prices if holds out above first key support aligning with our momentum indicator at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Gold (June) / Silver (July)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1875.7, up 6.9

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.443, up 0.041

– U.S. Dollar pulling back from fresh 20 year high at 104, helping to buoy Gold and Silver.

– Yields not extending higher overnight.

– All is waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls, expectations described above.

– Gold and Silver both tested strong areas of resistance before falling yesterday. Do not want this to develop into a failure, do not want to see lower lows on the week. – Still, strong support is underpinning each, detailed below, rebound is likely to hold if Gold can hold above our Pivot and point of balance at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Originally Posted on May 6, 2022 – Your Roadmap to Jobs Friday 

Disclosure: Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained within is not to be construed as a recommendation of any investment product or service.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with permission from Blue Line Futures. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at