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Tesla: Now That’s More Like It

Smartkarma

Contributor:
Smartkarma
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By:

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

China’s CBIRC has quietly made a big correction in Tesla’s August Model Y insured sales which eliminated the huge discrepancy between results previously reported by CATARC and sales numbers from CPCA. 

August Model 3 sales? Still bad, and so is the specter of Tesla’s shrinking market share in the largest EV market in the world.

DETAILS

CATARC data for insured August sales was recently amended by CBIRC to indicate Tesla Motors (TSLA US) Model Y sales actually closely tracked reported sales by CPCA—which is more typical with long term trends.

As such, this report updates my previous report Tesla’s August Sales Numbers in China Don’t Add Up published on 9/17/21 to reflect the corrected numbers from CBIRC versus the grossly incorrect data previously reported by CATARC.

Well, That’s Completely Different

China Automotive Technology and Research Center CATARC tracks insurance registrations rather than sales data provided by carmakers as collected by CPCA. This tends to align closely with monthly retail sales since cars must be insured before they can be licensed. Tesla sales are all cash due upon delivery, so insurance must be arranged and finalized before the customer can take possession of the car.

CATARC is regulated by China Banking & Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC).

Important data from CBIRC was recently released since my report Tesla’s August Sales Numbers in China Don’t Add Up was published on 9/17/21 which corrected an extreme and highly unusual difference between reported August sales by CPCA and insured sales reported by CATARC.

CBIRC reported, without further clarification, that indicated Model Y insured sales were 11,721 in August—well within the more traditionally slim margin versus CPCA reported sales at 11,576.

This corrected a dramatically lower 1,538 for Model Y, down 28% versus weak July results, which previously had been reported by CATARC and which had created a stunning 10,038 difference versus the 11,576 previously reported by CPCA.

CBIRC reported Model 3 insured August sales at 1,273, confirming previously reported results by CATARC which had closely aligned with the weak 1,309 (down a whopping 89% y/y) as reported by CPCA.

CBIRC’s action to correct the large discrepancy in reported August Model Y sales was no doubt a great relief to Tesla, which has enough trouble with regulators already in China as well as the US—not to mention its voracious local rivals which are rapidly absorbing market share.

Stay tuned.

Originally Posted on October 15, 2021 – Tesla: Now That’s More Like It

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